Bounding Analysis of Lung Cancer Risks Using Imprecise Probabilities

For cancers with more than one risk factor, the sum of probabilistic estimates of the number of cancers attributable to each individual factor may exceed the total number of cases observed when uncertainties about exposure and dose-response for some factors is high. In this study we outline a method to bound the fraction of lung cancer fatalities not attributed to specific wellstudied causes in which available data and expert judgment are used to attribute portions of the observed lung cancer mortality to known causes such as smoking, residential radon, and asbestos fibers. An upper bound on the residual risk due to other causes is then inferred using a coherence constraint on the total number of deaths, a maximum uncertainty principle, and imprecise probabilities.